South Africa's AIDS toll

From the department of shrinking-populations:

South Africa is in danger of losing the battle against HIV/Aids, the United Nations children's agency has warned.

Unicef's South Africa representative Macharia Kamau said that infection and death rates in the country are outpacing treatment.

This was having a devastating effect on children whose parents die of Aids and sent out a dire message for the future.

Mr Kamau said if present trends continued there could be five million orphans in South Africa by 2015.

South Africa is one of just nine countries worldwide where infant mortality is rising - from 60 deaths per 1,000 births in 1990, to 95 deaths today.

The main reason, Unicef says, is HIV/Aids.

The average infection rate is almost 30% of the population - in some regions it is closer to 50%.

South Africa's population has been shrinking for some time. The CIA World Factbook shows a birth rate of 17.94 births / 1000 people and a death rate of 22.45 births / 1000 people. Most of the AIDS in South Africa is spread via heterosexual sex. I expect South Africa's population to shrink for some years before the effect of AIDS is reduced.