Market carnage tomorrow?

Despite my less than stellar record in predicting short term events, I will go out on a limb and say that Thursday July 3rd will be a very bad day for the American economy. Why?

  1. The ECB will probably raise interest rates.
  2. The June US unemployment rate will come out. I am expecting a substantial rise.
These together should do the following:
  1. A big drop in the value of the US Dollar.
  2. A big drop in US Shares.
  3. Higher Oil Prices.
  4. Higher Gold Prices.
  5. Media reports where the word "depression" is used.
But, you know, these sorts of predictions sometimes go wrong!

Update 11.48 UTC:
ECB Raises interest rates to 4.25%.

Update 12.33 UTC:
Unemployment steady at 5.5%.

No carnage... but probably a bad day anyway.

1 comment:

42 said...

Get out of my head.

FWIW, US index futures are slightly up tonight. I mean my tonight, not your approaching one. But that's rather meaningless as these same futures were well up last night, and we all can see what happened today. er, tonight. er... damned time zones! be less zoney!