An open wager with T. Boone Pickens

Dear Mr Pickens,

Just recently you stated to the media that you expected oil prices to return to record levels by the end of 2008.

Sir, you are a man who sticks by his word, so I would like to make a wager with you if that is at all possible. Why? Because I think your prediction will be dead wrong.

Mr Pickens, you are a man who has spent decades making billions of dollars out of the oil industry. I, on the other hand, am a 39 year old self-taught economist who works as a substitute high school teacher.

Nevertheless, I believe that you are dead wrong on this, and I would like to challenge you to a wager.

I have stated on this blog recently my belief that oil prices will drop below $100 within the next 12 months. I stand by this prediction, even though it disagrees with yours.

As a result, I would like to make a bet with you on this matter. The bet will go as follows:

• In order for T. Boone Pickins to win the bet, the price of West Texas Intermediate must equal or exceed $147.28 per barrel on or before December 31st, 2008.


• In order for One Salient Oversight to win the bet, the price of West Texas Intermediate must be below $100 at any point on or before December 31st, 2008, and must never equal or exceed $147.28 during that period either.


• If West Texas Intermediate prices neither drop below $100 nor equal or exceed $147.28 on or before December 31st, 2008, then neither individual will win the bet.

I'm trying to work out an appropriate amount. I'm willing to place US$100 on the line. I will leave it up to you to determine your own amount.

Yours sincerely,

Neil Cameron
aka "One Salient Oversight"
Newcastle, NSW, Australia