More on Sarah Palin

Hmmm. I've been doing some more research into Sarah Palin, John McCain's surprise pick as Vice President.

Of huge interest is the fact that she has revealed that her teenage daughter is pregnant. Apparently this information was released as a way of countering all that news on the internet about her recent birth of Trig, who has Down's syndrome, actually being a cover-up of Trig actually being her daughter's baby.

As a result, I have spent a bit of time "muck-raking". I've been searching the internet like a sewer rat trying to find evidence of any cover-up. While some may say that this is nothing but a way to smear her, my response is simply that I will try to present facts and then see where they go. My aim is always to be objective, of course. I have no personal beef against Palin.

If it is true that Sarah Palin was not actually pregnant and that it was actually her daughter Bristol who gave birth, then these points are interesting:

• Such a cover up would have been difficult to keep quiet. The entire Palin family would have to have agreed not to let anyone know that Bristol was pregnant. Not only that, but her personal staff and extended family would have some idea of what is going on.
  
• Sarah Palin's motive in covering up her daughter's pregnancy is important here. This motive would be so important to her that she created an elaborate scam and made people believe that she was pregnant. This would be a very politically risky action, since any political fallout resulting from her daughter's pregnancy would be nothing compared to any political fallout resulting from her scam being exposed.
  
• Having said that, there is some concern about her actions immediately preceding Trig's birth. She began "leaking" prior to making a speech in Texas, yet managed to make the speech, jump on a flight to Seattle, wait around for a connecting flight to Anchorage, fly to Anchorage, then, ignoring the Anchorage hospitals, drive 42 miles to a hospital in Palmer. There she is induced and gives birth some eight hours later, with her family doctor, Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, present at the birth. This sequence of events did not pass unnoticed by the press at the time, but the questions asked were not about whether she was "faking it", but whether they were wise, considering her health.
  
• Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, the Palin family doctor, has commented publicy about the being present at the birth. If a cover-up has occurred, then Baldwin-Johnson was part of it. Baldwin-Johnson, from everything I have read so far on the internet, is a highly skilled and respected physician and is considered one of Alaska's top doctors. Moreover, she was "named the 2002 Family Physician of the Year by the American Academy of Family Physicians". Examples of her competence and skill can be found here, and here (with photo). Of course it is possible for such a respected figure to involve herself in such an elaborate cover-up, but the risks in doing so would be huge.
  
• There are no photos I have seen yet which show Palin in an advanced state of pregnancy prior to the birth of Trig. Then again, Alaska is a small state and its media would hardly have the same sort of image resources that bigger states would have. By way of contrast, the Hunter Valley, where I live, has about 90% the population of Alaska and I can't even remember who our mayor is, let alone find large amounts of images of him/her.
• Interestingly, there is no online record of Trig's birth at the hospital. Trig was born on April 22, but the hospital's online records do not show this. Of course, there may be all sorts of reasons for this, not least the decision to keep such an event private. The fact that the hospital doesn't have an online record of the birth does not mean that the hospital didn't record it. Moreover, if you look at the actual pages, there are pictures of happy families and babies all over the place. I can imagine that the governor of the state requested that no photos be taken of Trig. I can also imagine other "regular" parents doing the same thing.
• Moreover, if Trig was not Sarah's child but Bristol's, what would be the point of dragging the poor kid a few hundred miles north, past the Arctic Circle, to be present at some whaling festival? Politicans will always drag their family along with them for photo shoots, but I think that dragging along your grandson and passing it off as your own in front of a bunch of voters would be too much. It's possible, but very, very cynical.
• In short, it is much easier to believe that Trig is Sarah Palin's fifth child than it is to believe that it is Bristol's. Providing photos of the birth and Trig's birth certificate may be able to quell some of the speculation, but, as it stands, the idea that Trig is Bristol's son is something that just doesn't work out. Why the elaborate cover-up? Why involve one of Alaska's most prominent physicians in the cover-up? It just doesn't add up.
• Hanlon's Razor is important here: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
  

Having said all those things, however, I would like to point out one more thing that conservative "family-values" voters should take into consideration - is Sarah Palin being a responsible mother? She has a infant son with a serious disability that will need more and more looking after as he gets older. More than that, she now has a pregnant teenage daughter who is going to marry her boyfriend. Her daughter will need her help and support. Regardless of her political pedigree, is it really wise for her to embark upon a Vice-Presidential campaign? Is it really wise for her to have these family stresses while working as America's second most powerful person? Would her commitment to her son and daughter be compromised by her role as Vice President or even President?

One thing is for sure - there are plenty of people out there who are qualified to be Vice President. But is there anyone else out there better qualified to be Bristol and Trig's mom?

Update 08:00GMT

Finally saw a picture of Palin pregnant. You can see it here. It's a link to a Right wing site but there's no reason to think the photo was doctored in any way.

Unfortunately for Palin, it seems that the Myspace sites of Bristol and her friends were not taken down fast enough. One lot of photos is here and while it shows some nice family shots of a newborn Trig it also shows quite a lot of underage drinking and partying down. I can't be certain but some of the shots I think involve Bristol. Another set of photos is here. The New York Daily News also has some shots of Bristol's boyfriend Levi.

In short, the "next big thing" in the news is going to be Palin's moral conservative political stance being contrasted with the underage drinking and premarital sex going on in her family. Again, let me state that I am not absolutely certain that any of the photos show Bristol since I (and many others) cannot identify these people accurately. It doesn't look good, though.