- The US Dollar will undergo a substantial devaluation. It will eventually fall below 60 on the US Dollar Index.
- The price of oil will go up again but only because it is denominated in US Dollars. It may potentially rise up to $60 depending upon how far the US Dollar will drop, but will not rise due to increased demand.
- Oil production throughout 2009 will be substantially lower than the past two years.
- Gold will exceed $1000 per ounce as a result of the dollar drop too.
- US unemployment will exceed 10% sometime during the year.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average will drop below 7082.26 (half the October 2007 high of 14,164.53. It's already around 8500 so it won't have far to go).
- Two quarters of 2009 GDP will be negative. The NBER will not announce an end to the recession at all in 2009.
- Inflation will rise again a few months after the US Dollar drops (see prediction no. 1 above)
- Ben Bernanke will resign or will be fired. A major shakeup of the Federal Open Market Committee will see many new faces.
- US Public Debt will exceed 55% of GDP.
- Barack Obama's decisions will disappoint experts, but will retain a high level of popular support.
- Paul Krugman will admit he was seriously wrong about something.
- Iceland's economy will begin to recover in the second half of the year.
- A growing number of Brits will demand adopting the Euro and abandoning the weak Pound. While this number may exceed 50% of the population, it will not be enough for UK politicians to make any decision throughout the year.
- Australia will lose The Ashes to England in the middle of 2009.
- More climate scientists will admit that global warming is occurring faster than they thought it would.
- Sea levels will rise by more than 3mm in 2009.
- Kevin Rudd will mention Biochar.
- Applications for Green cards will decline substantially.
- Linux adoption will exceed 1.2%.
- Firefox adoption will exceed 25%.
- Duke Nukem Forever will be released to universal indifference.
- Robert Mugabe will remain president of Zimbabwe as conditions plumb new depths of misery.
- The Australian Economy will go into recession.
- Heath Ledger will posthumously win the 81st Academy Awards Best Actor Oscar for his role as the Joker in The Dark Knight.
8 comments:
Even a year ago, these would have sounded plausible but impossibly gloomy. Now, they just sound like the "low hanging fruit" of the prediction parimutuel.
Regarding Mugabe -- why don't these old bastards ever die of heart disease or a stroke or something? Compared to the general population, they seem to have remarkably robust health.
Noni
Living in the UK I can't agree with the sentiment behind no. 14 -- although as you've phrased it ("a growing number") there's quite a bit of wiggle room for you (even the most nominal increase will count in your favour). As a result of the weaker pound I don't sense much increased desire among people on the ground for adopting the Euro.
Happy New Year Noni, and all :-)
OSO, we've re-posted this here. Thanks!
As a follow-up to my previous comment here's a poll result suggesting that as a result of the fall in Sterling the British public is no more in favour of joining the Euro.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/02/euro-public-support-poll-sterling
As the year progresses and the UK slides into a deep recession, those numbers will change.
"Duke Nukem Forever will be released to universal indifference."
WASH YOUR MOUTH OUT!
See, I don't bat an eyelid about Britain joining the Euro, but when you hit on IMPORTANT things, there's a problem!
The Duke Nukem project was shut down by the company (to universal indifference :))
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