2008-12-31

25 Predictions for 2009

  1. The US Dollar will undergo a substantial devaluation. It will eventually fall below 60 on the US Dollar Index.
  2. The price of oil will go up again but only because it is denominated in US Dollars. It may potentially rise up to $60 depending upon how far the US Dollar will drop, but will not rise due to increased demand.
  3. Oil production throughout 2009 will be substantially lower than the past two years.
  4. Gold will exceed $1000 per ounce as a result of the dollar drop too.
  5. US unemployment will exceed 10% sometime during the year.
  6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will drop below 7082.26 (half the October 2007 high of 14,164.53. It's already around 8500 so it won't have far to go).
  7. Two quarters of 2009 GDP will be negative. The NBER will not announce an end to the recession at all in 2009.
  8. Inflation will rise again a few months after the US Dollar drops (see prediction no. 1 above)
  9. Ben Bernanke will resign or will be fired. A major shakeup of the Federal Open Market Committee will see many new faces.
  10. US Public Debt will exceed 55% of GDP.
  11. Barack Obama's decisions will disappoint experts, but will retain a high level of popular support.
  12. Paul Krugman will admit he was seriously wrong about something.
  13. Iceland's economy will begin to recover in the second half of the year.
  14. A growing number of Brits will demand adopting the Euro and abandoning the weak Pound. While this number may exceed 50% of the population, it will not be enough for UK politicians to make any decision throughout the year.
  15. Australia will lose The Ashes to England in the middle of 2009.
  16. More climate scientists will admit that global warming is occurring faster than they thought it would.
  17. Sea levels will rise by more than 3mm in 2009.
  18. Kevin Rudd will mention Biochar.
  19. Applications for Green cards will decline substantially.
  20. Linux adoption will exceed 1.2%.
  21. Firefox adoption will exceed 25%.
  22. Duke Nukem Forever will be released to universal indifference.
  23. Robert Mugabe will remain president of Zimbabwe as conditions plumb new depths of misery.
  24. The Australian Economy will go into recession.
  25. Heath Ledger will posthumously win the 81st Academy Awards Best Actor Oscar for his role as the Joker in The Dark Knight.

8 comments:

Noni Mausa said...

Even a year ago, these would have sounded plausible but impossibly gloomy. Now, they just sound like the "low hanging fruit" of the prediction parimutuel.

Regarding Mugabe -- why don't these old bastards ever die of heart disease or a stroke or something? Compared to the general population, they seem to have remarkably robust health.

Noni

Mike said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
apodeictic said...

Living in the UK I can't agree with the sentiment behind no. 14 -- although as you've phrased it ("a growing number") there's quite a bit of wiggle room for you (even the most nominal increase will count in your favour). As a result of the weaker pound I don't sense much increased desire among people on the ground for adopting the Euro.

John M said...

Happy New Year Noni, and all :-)

OSO, we've re-posted this here. Thanks!

apodeictic said...

As a follow-up to my previous comment here's a poll result suggesting that as a result of the fall in Sterling the British public is no more in favour of joining the Euro.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/02/euro-public-support-poll-sterling

One Salient Oversight said...

As the year progresses and the UK slides into a deep recession, those numbers will change.

Roland Hulme said...

"Duke Nukem Forever will be released to universal indifference."

WASH YOUR MOUTH OUT!

See, I don't bat an eyelid about Britain joining the Euro, but when you hit on IMPORTANT things, there's a problem!

SDC said...

The Duke Nukem project was shut down by the company (to universal indifference :))