US Downturn for 2012 now assured

The Real 10 year bond rate average over 3 months has now dropped below zero to -0.12%. As I have been pointing out for the last month, this presages another economic downturn for the United States.

Inflation just came in at 3.4%. Even though June saw a monthly deflation, it wasn't enough to prevent a move into negative real bond rates.

The monthly Real 10 year bond rate also had its second month in negative territory at -0.43%.

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