2007-03-06

We've probably peaked

There is increasing evidence that oil production has peaked, probably around 12 months ago. About 6 months ago I checked out the Saudi oil production figures and was surprised to see either a flat or declining graph. Courtesy of the Oil Drum, I've just viewed the last 12 month's production figures and they look like this:


Of course, since I'm in a graphics mood today, let's look at Saudi production figures since 2000:


Since the writing is small, I need to let you know that the production figure is actually the green line at the top. The big, thick blue line is the amount of oil rigs in the country (I assume "rigs" means land-based oil terminals that have stored oil from multiple wells). As you can see, there has been a marked decline in Saudi oil production along with a marked increase in oil rigs. Despite the increase in rigs, production has not increased.

And, I offer for your perusal, the Hubbert Curve, the cornerstone graph of Peak Oil:

See the Peak there in that graph? Now look back at the previous graph and you will see that the Peak of Saudi oil production occurred some 2 years ago.

Saudi Arabia is, of course, the largest producer of oil in the world. If Saudi has peaked, then oil will become more scarce. Interesting times lie ahead.

1 comment:

Eclipse Now! said...

Yep, that "rigs" per unit of production graph is pretty compelling. They are running harder and harder just to stand still.

Far out. It's real.

Hey, maybe you could copy the code for installing a funky "Preview" of "A Crude Awakening" on your blog just as "Nothing New Under The Sun" has on theirs? Come on, it's cool. Go Ooooh, Aaaaaah.

Good to see you "peaking" again. ;-)