Regarding the seat of Newcastle, it seems I spoke too soon. Jodi McKay is now running second... not to Bryce Gaudry but to John Tate! The ABC is now predicting that Tate will win, with a 22% swing against the ALP in one of its traditional heartlands. It now seems that the Hunter Valley generally is moving towards more independent politics.
And how about a break up a conservative vs progressive primary voting trends?
Conservative parties - 39.2% of the vote
Progressive parties - 48.2% of the vote
Conservative = Liberal Party + National Party + Christian Democrats
Progressive = Labor Party + Greens
(Although I still have a very hard time believing that the Labor Party can be defined as "progressive")