One way to tell the length of an economic downturn is to examine signs of recovery. In recessions past, whenever important stats began to "bottom out" (ie declined at a very slow rate), economic growth would be positive and unemployment would, eventually, reach a peak and then decline. Check out the following graph:
As you can see, unemployment usually continues to increase once a recession is over, but reaches a peak a while afterwards. This particular phenomenon, however, is only true of the last two recessions. Previous to this, unemployment peaked pretty much at the same time as a recession officially ended (see here).
Assuming that this phenomenon continues, can we see any sign of stats "bottoming out"? Not really. Calculated Risk, which reports on stats on a daily basis, continues to broadcast economic woe:
As you can see, unemployment usually continues to increase once a recession is over, but reaches a peak a while afterwards. This particular phenomenon, however, is only true of the last two recessions. Previous to this, unemployment peaked pretty much at the same time as a recession officially ended (see here).
Assuming that this phenomenon continues, can we see any sign of stats "bottoming out"? Not really. Calculated Risk, which reports on stats on a daily basis, continues to broadcast economic woe:
- Architecture Billings index hits record low.
- Industrial Production is cliff diving.
- Housing starts at record low.
- Overcapacity everywhere.
- DJIA going nowhere.
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