Recovery?

The signs are there that the US economy is beginning to recover. The last quarter GDP came out at 3.5% - which, though it might end up being revised downwards over the next few months, does indicate some level of economic growth. Moreover, other signals, such as manufacturing increases, seem to indicate a potential recovery.

I can see two possibilities before us.

The first possibility is that growth will continue over the next few years but the rate of growth will be low. Any form of Keynesian spending of the sort practised by Obama and congress will result in an economic slump over the medium term. The hope, of course, is that the spending will stimulate the economy enough for it to be self-sustaining and thus end up paying off the debt accrued by the stimulus in the first place. Given the sheer level of US public debt (which is approaching my predicted 55% of GDP), I doubt that the benefits will end up outweighing the losses. Yet the US economy has had the ability to surprise in the past so I can't discount the idea that GDP will return to growth over the next 4-6 quarters. What I am certain of is that such growth, if it occurs, will be hobbled. I can't see anything beyond 2% being achieved. In terms of unemployment, such hobbled growth will result in only a slight improvement over the current situation, which is, of course, terrible.

The second possibility is that the 3.5% growth is merely a blip on the way further downwards. This means that Q1 2009 and beyond is likely to see a return to recessionary conditions. One of my predictions for 2009 was for the US Dollar to drop below 60 on the US Dollar Index which, in hindsight, appears to be too pessimistic. Nevertheless, the fall in the US Dollar this year has been the steepest on record and there seems to be little evidence that it has reached the bottom. As I have pointed out over the years, with bond yields too low and business profits rare, why would investors wish to invest in America? The US is still ripe for capital flight given the superior conditions elsewhere (or at least "less bad" conditions). The US Dollar cannot continue to fall without some inflationary pressure and, when it comes, will require increasing interest rates in an already poor economic situation (increasing interest rates always dampens economic growth).

What I can't see is any possibility of the US returning to consistent 3-4% GDP growth. The damage caused by runaway public spending since Reagan, a badly unregulated financial market and cheap borrowing cannot be ignored. There is a time for the US to reap what it has sown, and the harvest has only just begun.

In which I might become the author of a meme

In the world of the internets, the meme author is king. Admiral Ackbar, AYBABTU, Do not want - all these meme creators have been glorified by their actions.

So what did I do? Well, it's still developing, but it's possible that I created a meme called "Move to Svalbard". It started at Reddit (as all horrible things start there) where I posted what I felt was an interesting link. I had been going through Wikipedia when I reached the page on Svalbard, which is a Norwegian Island near the north pole. Now the interesting thing about the history of Svalbard is that it was the subject of an international treaty in 1920 which is still in force today. One of the most important bits of the treaty is the following:

All citizens and all companies of every nation under the treaty are allowed to become residents and to have access to Svalbard including the right to fish, hunt or undertake any kind of maritime, industrial, mining or trade activity. The residents of Svalbard must follow Norwegian law though Norwegian authority cannot discriminate or favor any residents of a certain nationality.

Did you get that? Basically it means that anyone from the 39 nations who signed the treaty can migrate to Svalbard to live and work. Even though Svalbard is part of Norway, the Norwegian government cannot prevent people from the 39 nations moving there to work.

So I thought "this demands a Reddit posting", which I titled Sick of your country? Don't mind cold weather? The treaty of Spitzbergen allows citizens of 39 nations to migrate to Svalbard (a Norwegian island near the North pole) and become residents if they want to, no questions asked. Link here.

The response was enthusiastic. The posting reached into the top five postings for a while and it has so far generated over 500 comments. What are the comments about? Well apart from the terrible Reddit humour (which is why I was drawn to Reddit in the first place), there seems to be some level of enthusiasm for actually moving to Svalbard. It would be interesting if people actually DID migrate to Svalbard as a result of my posting. "Jobs in Svalbard" has apparently become a search phrase as a result.

The interest generated has moved on to another posting made by someone else. It is entitled IAMA Request: Someone living in Svalbard, in the hope that a Svalbardian might just read it and respond. The post was created by someone who wants to know what it is like to live there. In response to this, some people have even begun to comment on Svalbard message boards - which is going to be hard since the message boards and the population all speak either Russian or Norwegian.

How far will this go? Who knows? If a "Reddit IT Community" begins in Svalbard (a semi-serious suggestion by a redditor) you can probably thank me. I'm not going to move there - too cold. But if anyone does, make sure you name something after me.

Update: Someone has decided to visit Svalbard and study there.

Judith Rae Curtis, 1940-2009

Judy, my mother in law, died last Wednesday at the Mater hospice. As many readers know, she had been suffering from various cancers for some time, so her death was, in the end, a relief.

A private cremation service was held yesterday (Monday 26 October) in which Judy's close family members (my wife, myself, our two children, Judy's sister and brother-in-law) and a close friend attended. A public memorial service was held today at our church. I contributed with the opening prayer and with a eulogy, the text of which follows:

Opening Prayer

Lord God,

We gather here today to worship you and praise you for the life of Judith Rae Curtis. We thank you for her, Lord. We thank you that you worked in her to touch the lives of so many, including those of us here today. We thank you for:
- her smile,
- for her insights,
- for her professional skills and knowledge that taught so many to treat others so effectively,
- and for her transparent love of Christ which gave her joy and meaning in life in her youth and in her old age, and in times of joy and in times of trial.

We praise you that she is now in paradise with Christ. We ask this day as we celebrate her life, that we might meditate upon our own lives in the light of eternity, and that you might speak to us and teach us about what it means to be a disciple of Christ.

This we pray in the name of Jesus.

Amen



My memories of Judith

My memories of Judy naturally begin around the time I met Anna, so I don't remember the exact moment I met her, but certainly the feelings of nervousness that accompany a guy who is meeting his girlfriend's parents for the first time. In fact I remember more clearly meeting Anna's dad than meeting Judy – which, as many of you know, is quite understandable.

Anna was the light of Judy's life. Her only child. Naturally Judy had reasonably high expectations of whatever guy would end up marrying her daughter. Did I meet those expectations? Of course not. But Judy was generous nonetheless, and wholeheartedly supported our decision to marry.

I remember one time during our engagement when Judy came up to me and said some very kind words. Like most mothers with adult children, she looked forward to grandchildren, and with tears in her eyes she spoke of this.

Of course it took us a while, but once Aiden and Lillian came along Judy was delighted. One of my favourite pictures of Judy on the montage at the back of the church shows her playing with a 2 year old Anna. Judy's mouth open, the big smile – they were present when Anna was a little girl, and they were present again whenever Lillian or Aiden was around.

I know that Judy achieved much in her life professionally. I never saw any of that. I never saw Judy as teacher or lecturer or tutor or colleague. Instead I saw her in her role as mother and grandmother. The way I look at it is this: As an academic and health professional, she was able to improve the quality of life of many. As a mother and grandmother she gave much to Anna, Lillian, Aiden and myself.

The last few months of Judy's life were tough, but I am glad that we were able to be there for her. She was surrounded by her family at the end of her life. We'll never forget her.

Rice and Lentils for Breakfast

I've been planning this for months and finally this morning I made the decision to make it. Here's the recipe:

• ¼ cup Rice (Basmati... though long grain would work)
• ¼ cup Red Lentils
• ½ cup water
• ½ teaspoon salt
• 1 teaspoon curry powder

Method:

1. Place all ingredients into small saucepan. Stir.
2. Place on stove at high heat until you see the beginnings of boiling.
3. Put stove setting on low.
4. Place lid on saucepan.
5. Wait 10-12 minutes while it slow cooks.
6. Eat.

Notes:

• Cooking a hot rice breakfast may sound weird but rice is a cereal and cereal is a good food to eat at breakfast.
• There is very little fat in this meal.
• The rice provides lots of complex carbohydrate while the lentils provide protein. Both are high in fibre.
• The amounts listed above are enough (probably more than enough) for one person. If you wish to cook for more than one person, simply multiply the amounts.
• Measurements in metric. 1 cup = 250ml.
• Other lentils may take longer to cook, so I suggest you stick with the red ones.
  

Obama wins Nobel Peace Prize???

Huh?:

OSLO — President Obama today won the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize for "his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples," the Norwegian Nobel Committee said.

"Only very rarely has a person to the same extent as Obama captured the world's attention and given its people hope for a better future," the committee said. "His diplomacy is founded in the concept that those who are to lead the world must do so on the basis of values and attitudes that are shared by the majority of the world's population."

Obama's name had been mentioned in speculation before the award but many Nobel watchers believed it was too early to award the president.

The committee said it attached special importance to Obama's vision of and work for a world without nuclear weapons.

"Obama has as president created a new climate in international politics. Multilateral diplomacy has regained a central position, with emphasis on the role that the United Nations and other international institutions can play."

This is ridiculous. Seriously.

UPDATE:

Redditors have gone crazy. Here are some samples:

• Let me say sincerely: WTF
• YO OBAMA, I'M GONNA LET YOU FINISH, BUT I JUST WANT TO SAY THAT MARTIN LUTHER KING JR WAS THE BEST NOBEL PRIZE WINNER OF ALL TIME.
• Fox News is gonna LOVE this
• Fox news will simply say, "Of course he's a communist. This award was given out by a communist country."
• Well there goes all the credibility that's left in the entire nobel-thing.
• Credibility? That hasn't been there since Yasser Arafat won it.
• Eh, at least it makes more sense than that Grammy that he won.
• Now he just needs that Super Bowl Ring.
• Stop the bitching, he won it because Sarah Palin is not the vice president.
• Norway/Sweden = Socialist. Norway gives award to Obama. Obama = Socialist
• My god, there goes my monocle!
• Take that Drudge, Hannity, Limbaugh, Beck, et. al. So tell me again how losing the Olympics was an international rejection of Obama?
• yes, award the Peace Prize to a guy who won't close Gitmo, sends more troops to the sinkhole that is Afghanistan, maintains almost all the Bush military, continues to send US tax money to Israel to pay for arms while watching American jobs flood away, but allows money-losing banks to award billions in bonuses paid for by taxpayer-funded TARP. What a guy. What. a. guy.
• It's good to see the Nobel committee moving on to winners of the US Presidential election. Remember when Al Gore won the peace prize for a slide show?
• No seriously, this isn't an article from "The Onion"?

More correct prognostications

From my 25 Predictions of 2009:

Prediction #4: "Gold will exceed $1000 per ounce as a result of the dollar drop too."

Bloomberg, 2009-09-08:

Gold climbed above $1,000 an ounce for the first time in six months.

Prediction #15: "Australia will lose The Ashes to England in the middle of 2009."

Cricinfo, 2009-08-23:

Australia's 2-1 Ashes defeat, confirmed with a heavy 197-run loss at The Oval on Sunday, has cost them their No. 1 spot in the ICC Test rankings. They have slipped to fourth, with South Africa now the No. 1 Test team in the world, followed by Sri Lanka and India.

In which the incompetent are rewarded by the incompetent?

Barack Obama is in the process of reappointing Ben Bernanke as governor of the Federal Reserve. This fact has led me to wonder whether Obama is either ignorant, a fool or an industry shill. There are no other choices.

Bernanke is one of the people responsible for the current crisis. As a member of the FOMC that approved injudicious interest rate lowering under Greenspan, he is jointly responsible for the property bubble which formed. I have argued that point here.

Bernanke has reacted to the crisis badly. First he didn't admit that there was a crisis and then, when the crisis was underway, argued that it was "contained". Again, look at the link above for the details.

Once he realised that things were bad, Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, acted swiftly in increasing the money supply at a time when the money supply was tightening into deflation. This was not a terribly hard thing to do. Even I could've done it. In fact, since I was actually aware of the crisis years before Bernanke, I would've been able to take pre-emptory actions and done a better job. Yet it's Bernanke who gets the multi-million dollar salary while myself and others bang our heads against the wall in response to the stupidity of those who control vast sums of money.

So the question is - why did Obama not know this? Is he being shielded from reality by a bubble in a similar way that Bush was? Or maybe he has no idea of how economics works and thinks Ben has done a good job. Or maybe Obama is simply having his strings pulled by industry insiders. Whichever one it is is hardly encouraging.

A reminder

I'm still on hiatus, but will post occasionally.

Another prediction

From my list of predictions for 2009 comes #7:

Two quarters of 2009 GDP will be negative. The NBER will not announce an end to the recession at all in 2009.

Bloomberg today:

The U.S. economy shrank at a better- than-forecast 1 percent annual pace in the second quarter as a jump in government spending masked a deeper retrenchment by consumers.

The drop in gross domestic product followed a 6.4 percent contraction in the prior three months, the worst in 27 years, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Revisions showed the economic downturn last year was even deeper than previously estimated.

Two quarters are now officially negative, thus half fulfilling my prediction. We have to wait until 2010, though, for the other half of the prediction to be fulfilled (the NBER not announcing an end to the recession).

New contact details

Getting sick of spam.