From my list of predictions for 2009 comes #7:
Two quarters of 2009 GDP will be negative. The NBER will not announce an end to the recession at all in 2009.Bloomberg today:
The U.S. economy shrank at a better- than-forecast 1 percent annual pace in the second quarter as a jump in government spending masked a deeper retrenchment by consumers.Two quarters are now officially negative, thus half fulfilling my prediction. We have to wait until 2010, though, for the other half of the prediction to be fulfilled (the NBER not announcing an end to the recession).
The drop in gross domestic product followed a 6.4 percent contraction in the prior three months, the worst in 27 years, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Revisions showed the economic downturn last year was even deeper than previously estimated.