OSO's Debt Watch

GDP = $14.4617 Trillion (2009 Q4 second estimate)
Public Debt = $8.02665659443531 Trillion (2010-03-03)
Debt/GDP ratio = 55.50%
Population = 309,026,611 (Resident Population + Armed Forces Overseas, 2010-02-01)
Public Debt / person = $25,974.00
Tax Receipts = $2.023910 Trillion (Twelve month moving average¹, Monthly Treasury Statement, 2009-12-31)
Debt/Receipt ratio² = 396.59%
Federal Government Outlays = $3.474381 Trillion (Twelve month moving average¹, Monthly Treasury Statement)
Fiscal Surplus/Deficit = -$1.450471 Trillion
Surplus/Deficit as percentage of GDP = -10.03%

  • Second estimate GDP figures increased from first estimate but current dollar figure declined.
  • Population figures updated.
  • Tax receipts updated.
  • I predicted a 55% Debt/GDP ratio would occur in 2009. This was incorrect but I was out only by a few months.
  • Added outlays and fiscal deficits to show current size of budget deficit, including October 2008 figures below by way of comparison.
  • "Twelve month moving average" was what I have been using, not year-to-date. All previous posts referring to "year to date" figures were always a twelve month moving average. Apologies for getting this wrong.
In October 2008, the Debt/GDP ratio was 43.43%
In October 2008, Public Debt / person was $20,264.04
In October 2008, the Debt/Receipt² ratio was 231.82%
In October 2008, the Fiscal Surplus/Deficit was −$0.169041 Trillion
In October 2008, the Surplus/Deficit as percentage of GDP was -1.18%

¹ Measures total tax receipts/outlays over the previous 12 months from the last month measured. eg April 2009 to March 2010.
² The Debt/Receipt ratio measures year-to-date government revenue as a percentage of current public debt. A good way to compare it would be to compare your current income to what you owe on your mortgage.

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