2008-05-01

Being wrong

Well, the comments are in and the assumptions behind this post of mine suck quite hard. For whatever reason, I assumed that GDP is not inflation adjusted but it has been pointed out fairly clearly to me that it is.

This is one of those basic mistakes that I am not fond of. Simply put, I had my mind elsewhere when I wrote this and it was a lazy piece of research.

For those who might therefore question my economic credibility and thus my ideas, all I can say is that such questioning is entirely justified. It was never my intention to come across as an uninformed hack, and I know in my heart that I am not - nevertheless, you, dear occasional readers, have every right to wonder.

It was said to me that this was a case of "econ 101" - a very basic premise that was not understood by myself. Well, guilty as charged I'm afraid. I'm not going to shy away from taking the heat on this - I take full responsibility for everything I publish here on my blog. More than that, I'm not going to silently remove the offending post from my blog but rather keep it here as a reminder of my own ignorance and laziness.

For what it's worth, I still stand by all of my major economic predictions and ideas. I'll let the passage of time be my witness on this - which means that if I'm terribly wrong I'll happily admit to it and stop trying to be a wannabe economist. But if I'm right - both in my economic predictions and in the unorthodox ideas I have proposed - then I am certain that the basic "econ101" error I made with GDP and deflation will not really be a problem.

I realise that one thing at stake here is my credibility - whether or not my ideas and commentary on economics can be trusted. Well, that's something that I'll just have to "take on the chin". It's something that anyone who ever reads my economics posts must now take into consideration.

However, the one person who benefits the most from this is myself. I hate being wrong. Absolutely hate it. I hate it when people make pronouncements and decisions that are so obviously wrong - like Bush and co with Iraq, or with global warming sceptics, or with ideological right wingers who think tax cutting and small government is the solution for everything. As a result of not wanting to be wrong, I always try to do the required amount of research in order to have a well-thought out position. Oftentimes, though, I learn through experience that my assumptions and beliefs are wrong. This is one of those times.

As a result of this, I'm going to be cutting down my output of economics related articles. It's not that I've lost confidence in myself (I certainly haven't), it's just that I'm finding it harder to find time to do the required research. Moreover, my mother in law has cancer, I am working as a teacher again and my time at Last.fm leading a group of fans of my favourite band has given me a great deal of online satisfaction.

More than that, I will still be blogging - but just at a reduced rate.

2 comments:

rdan said...

OSO,
Ah well, it won't be my first either. Stay in touch.

Authentic Frontier Gibberish said...

I admit that I'm not sad to see economics posts reduced, but this stems entirely from my absolute loathing of (read: utter failure to understand) economics. I do hope that you keep posting regularly, though. Get back on the horse, please.