2010-08-29

OSO's Debt Watch - September 2010


GDP = $14.575 Trillion (Current Dollar, 2010 Q2 second estimate)
Real GDP = $13.1915 Trillion
Public Debt = $8.84951313100647 Trillion (2010-08-26)
Total debt owed to foreign holders of treasury securities = $4.0092 Trillion (2010-08-16)
Debt/GDP ratio = 60.72%
Foreign ownership of debt/GDP ratio = 27.51%
Population = 310,062,271 (Resident Population + Armed Forces Overseas, 2010-08-01)
GDP (Current Dollar) per capita = $47,006.69
GDP (Real) per capita = $42,544.68
Public Debt / person = $28,541.08
Foreign Public Debt/ person = $12,930.31
GDP per capita minus Public Debt per person = $18,465.60
Tax Receipts = $2.116950 Trillion (Twelve month moving average¹, Monthly Treasury Statement, 2010-07-01)
Tax Receipts as percentage of GDP = 14.52%
Debt/Receipt ratio² = 418.03%
Federal Government Outlays = $3.434780 Trillion (Twelve month moving average¹, Monthly Treasury Statement, 2010-07-01)
Federal Government Outlays as percentage of GDP = 23.57%
For every $1.00 the US government gains, it spends $1.62
Fiscal Surplus/Deficit = -$-1.31783 Trillion
Surplus/Deficit as percentage of GDP = -9.04%
Interest paid on Treasury Debt Securities (Gross, Twelve month moving average, Monthly Treasury Statement, 2010-07-01) = $0.418149 Trillion
Interest paid on Treasury Debt as percentage of revenue = 19.75%
Interest paid on Treasury Debt as percentage of GDP = 2.87%

Notes:
  • Debt/GDP ratio has now exceeded 60% of GDP





In October 2008, GDP was $14.2003 Trillion (Current Dollar, 2008 Q4 final estimate)
In October 2008, Public Debt was $6.18964742400511 Trillion (2008-10-20)
In October 2008, the total debt owed to foreign holders of treasury securities was $2.9797 Trillion
In October 2008, the Debt/GDP ratio was 43.59%
In October 2008, the foreign ownership of debt/GDP ratio was 20.98%
In October 2008, the Population (resident population + Armed Forces overseas) was 305,554,049 (2008-10-01)
In October 2008, GDP per capita was $46,473.94
In October 2008, Public Debt / person was $20,257.13
In October 2008, Foreign Public Debt/ person was $9,751.79
In October 2008, GDP per capita minus Public Debt per person was $26,216.81
In October 2008, Tax Receipts were $2.578156 Trillion (Twelve month moving average¹, November 2008 Monthly Treasury Statement)
In October 2008, Tax Receipts represented 18.16% of GDP
In October 2008, the Debt/Receipt² ratio was 240.08%
In October 2008, Federal Government outlays were $2.747197 Trillion (Twelve month moving average¹, November 2008 Monthly Treasury Statement)
In October 2008, Federal Government outlays represented 19.35% of GDP
In October 2008, for every $1.00 the US government gained, it spent $1.07.
In October 2008, the Fiscal Surplus/Deficit was −$0.169041 Trillion
In October 2008 the Surplus/Deficit as percentage of GDP was -1.19%
In October 2008, interest paid on Treasury Debt Securities (Twelve month moving average, Monthly Treasury Statements) was $0.429994 Trillion
In October 2008, interest paid on Treasury Debt as percentage of revenue was 16.68%
In October 2008, interest paid on Treasury Debt as percentage of GDP was 3.03%

The historical tables of the FY2010 budget (page 24-25) show that:

Highest tax receipts as percentage of GDP: 20.9% in 1944 and 2000.
Lowest tax receipts as percentage of GDP: 2.8% in 1932.
The last time tax receipts were lower than they are now: 13.3% in 1943.
Highest Federal Government outlays as percentage of GDP: 43.6% in 1943 and 1944.
Lowest Federal Government outlays as percentage of GDP: 3.4% in 1930.
The last time Federal Government outlays were higher than they are now: 24.8% in 1946.
Fiscal Deficit - Worst: -30.3% in 1943
Fiscal Surplus - Best: 4.6% in 1948


¹ Measures total tax receipts/outlays over the previous 12 months from the last month measured. eg April 2009 to March 2010.
² The Debt/Receipt ratio measures government revenue (twelve month moving average) as a percentage of current public debt. A good way to compare it would be to compare your current income to what you owe on your mortgage.





2 comments:

Eclipse Now said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Eclipse Now said...

Serious people are now talking about the end of America!

Download Empires on the Edge of Chaos. Well worth it.

The Centre for Independent Studies 2010 John Bonython Lecture with Niall Ferguson.

Is the rise and fall of empires cyclical or arrhythmic? How does economic profligacy - whether the result of arrogance or naivety - contribute to the downfall of civilisations?

Today Professor Ferguson will argue that great powers or empires are in the strict sense of the word, complex systems. Made up of very large numbers of interacting components that are quite asymmetrically organised. In other words, he continues, their construction more resembles a termite hill than an Egyptian pyramid. They operate somewhere between order and disorder. Moreover imperial falls are nearly always associated with fiscal crises, when there are dramatic imbalances between revenues and expenditures.

Thus alarm bells should be ringing in Washington DC but what does that for mean for Australia?


A contact at church told me he had lunch with his brother-in-law recently, a guy who happens to be the CEO of Barclay's bank.

The bankers get together and have business lunches and dinners. They talk about the end of America... the end of it resembling anything we've known in the last 60 years. They think by 2040 or 2050 it will look like something from one of the former Soviet Block 'new Europe' countries aspiring to join the EU... bankrupt, high unemployment, defunct, nearly irrelevant to world financial concerns.

And that's just finances. The Joint Forces command have just issued a report that world oil production could be down 10mbd by 2015! That's down 1/8th in 5 years!

America is the most oil vulnerable country in the world. It's not looking good for them, not good at all.