GDP predictions for Q3 2010

Based upon my study of Real Interest Rates over the past three months (government bond rates minus inflation), I am making a judicious prediction of a number of countries.

Note: GDP measured here is change from the previous quarter in annualised form

Economies that were growing in Q2 and will grow faster in Q3

• Australia: > + 4.9%
• Canada: > +2.0%
• China: Growth (quarterly GDP figures not readily available)
• Euro Zone: > +3.9%
• France: > +2.8%
• Germany: > +9.0%
• Japan: > +1.5%
• South Korea: > +5.2%

Economies that are growing in Q3 at around the same rate as they were in Q2

• Argentina: +12.3% steady
• Britain: +4.7% steady
• Italy: +1.8% steady
• Mexico: +13.5% steady
• New Zealand: 1.5% steady
• Russia: Steady (quarterly GDP figures not readily available)
• Spain: +0.7% steady
• Sweden: +8.0% steady

Economies that were growing in Q2 but will begin to slow down in Q3

• Brazil: < 5.1%
• India: Less growth (quarterly GDP figures not readily available)Poland: Less Growth (quarterly GDP figures not readily available)
• Switzerland: < +3.5%
• Turkey: Less Growth (quarterly GDP figures not readily available)
• USA: < +1.7%

Economies that were contracting in Q2 but will perform better in Q3

• Ireland: > -4.8%

Economies that were contracting in Q2 and will be even worse in Q3

• Greece: < -6.8%
• Iceland: < -11.8%

If these predictions are correct then what we will experience in Q3 will be a broad and strong international recovery, especially in the Euro Zone, while the US grows only slowly.