Update 14.20 UTC / 10.20 EST
Markets are down but not drastically. Enough of my hyperbolic ranting. I'm going to bed; it's 20 past midnight here in Australia.
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Update 13.46 UTC / 09.46 EST
What are the odds of the DJIA dropping below 10,000 today? That would be a 4%+ drop. Let's see how bad the markets get over the next 30 minutes.
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Update 13.37 UTC / 09.37 EST
- Wilshire 5000 is down 1.21% after 6 minutes of trading. Ouch.
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Update 13.22 UTC / 09.22 EST
- Bloomberg: U.S. Economy Grew 2.4% in Second Quarter, Below Forecast.
- Oil prices dropped from $77.80 per barrel at 12.30 UTC / 08.30 EST to $77.00 per barrel by 13.00 UTC / 09.00 EST. That's a one percent drop in a 30 minute period. Ouch.
- Bond rates (10 year notes) have dropped since the release too. This means investors are bearish towards the share market. I think we'll see a bit of a drop on today's share market.
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Update 13.13 UTC / 09.13 UTC
- The Main driver of Q2 2010 GDP appears to be Gross private domestic investment (pg 23 of 37). The increase is about 25% annualized.
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Update 13.04 UTC / 09.04 EST
- Big increase in government spending obviously helped. 4.4% more than Q2 2009 (pg 11 of 37)
- Federal Government increase was 9.2% more. (pg 11 of 37)
- State and Local Government spending increased only a small amount, but this was after a series of decreases in previous quarters. (pg 11 of 37)
- Big Jump in Imports during Q2 - 28.8%. Exports decreased slightly - 10.3% (pg 11 of 37)
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Update 12.55 UTC / 08:55 EST
- Big jump in personal savings rate, from 5.5% of disposable personal income last quarter to 6.2% this quarter (pg 28 of 37).
- Drop in Motor Vehicle sales was -0.5% less than the previous quarter (pg 36 of 37)
- Big increase in building structures I think, +14.4% more than the proceeding period and the first increase since Q2 2007
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Update 12.46 UTC / 08:46 EST
Official Advance Result
- 0.6% ¼ to ¼
- 2.4% annualized
- 2.8% annual
This is lower than the Bloomberg Median but obviously higher than mine.
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Update 12:40 UTC / 08:40 EST
Trying to fix the numbers here to make sense of it all. I'll comment soon.
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Update 12:00 UTC / 08:00 EST
Bloomberg survey results:
Bloomberg Low Forecast
- +0.3% ¼ to ¼
- +1.0% annualized
- +2.3% annual
- +0.7% ¼ to ¼
- +2.6% annualized
- +2.7% annual
- 1.0% ¼ to ¼
- 4.0% annualized
- 3.1% annual
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The time is 10:35 UTC. The US GDP advance figures will be released at 12.35 UTC. I am expecting GDP to rise but only quite slowly.
The upper limit will be the following:
- +0.2% ¼ to ¼
- +0.6% ¼ annualized
- +2.2% annual
The lower limit will be the following:
- +0.0% ¼ to ¼
- +0.2% annualized
- +2.1% annual
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