2012 US Downturn still on the cards

First of all apologies to anyone who regularly turns up here on the off chance that I've actually written something. I've been very busy - and also rather happy - with a new job and that has taken up much of my time.

What of my predictions of a 2012 US Downturn? I'm still certain of it.

One of the triggers on my recession watch spreadsheet is comparing the annual inflation rate to the annual increase in Net M0 (Monetary Base minus Excess Reserves) - when inflation increases beyond Net M0 then a recession will occur (at some point).

Now this still hasn't happened yet - however my spreadsheet shows me that January 2012 was a negative month. A negative month (whereby a monthly result is annualised) will presage an eventual decline, though it may just be a bad month (as January 2011 was).

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