Bipartisan Trump Removal

In the last few weeks, more and more evidence has piled up against Donald Trump's actions in the lead up to the 2016 presidential election. Campaign finance law breaches and communication with the Russian government mean that he committed serious felonies. The evidence from the US Justice Department indicates that he should be impeached and removed from office.

But is that going to happen? Despite all the evidence of 2017 and 2018 the Republicans in Congress have defended their president. It was impossible for the Democrats to win a two-thirds majority in the senate at the recent mid-term elections. In order for Trump to be impeached and removed, a simple majority vote in the House needs to be passed in order for impeachment, and a two-thirds majority in the Senate is needed to remove the president from office.

Impeachment from the house is a simple matter, but it won't make much difference if the senate doesn't remove him. So the senate is the battleground. 45 Democrats and 2 independents need 20 out the 53 Republicans to vote with them. This is unlikely to work.

But if it could work - if there are enough Republicans who are convinced of Trump's guilt - what would be the necessary compromises made between the two parties to agree to it?

 1. Mike Pence should resign or also be impeached. 

Although Mike Pence has not been linked to anything substantial, the fact remains that he is closely associated with Trump. This association is intolerable. If Trump is removed from office, Pence should not replace him. He should either be impeached and removed at the same time as Trump, or else he should resign prior to Trump's removal.

2. Nancy Pelosi should refuse to serve as President. 

In the presidential line of succession, the House Speaker is next in line after the Vice President. In 2019 this person will be Nancy Pelosi. Pelosi has been a committed Democrat in the US Senate for many years, and while many Democrats would welcome a Pelosi presidency, it would not be something acceptable to Republicans. As part of any potential agreement between the two parties, the ascending of a well known Democratic party leader to the White House could not work.

3. Orrin Hatch should not be selected to serve as President. 

Next in line in the presidential line of succession is the "President Pro Tempore" of the US Senate. This is Orrin Hatch. Hatch, like Pelosi, is a well known Republican party leader. At 84 years of age, he is the third eldest person in the Senate and has shown himself to be an ardent Trump supporter. He should not be selected either.

 4. Find a young, moderate Republican.

In order for the removal of Trump to work, his replacement must be a Republican. Ideally this person should be younger than 50 and should hold a moderately conservative position, as opposed to the more radical tea-party ideologues. Members of the "Republican Main Street Partnership" should be the ones most likely to fit this bill. In the Senate, this would include Todd Young, the 47-year old junior senator from Indiana. For the House, moderate Republican under 50s include: Rodney Davis, Sean Duffy, Brian Fitzpatrick, Mike Gallagher, Jaime Herrera Beutler, Will Hurd, Adam Kinzinger, Brian Mast, Tom Reed, Elise Stefanik, David Valadao and Lee Zeldin.

5. Place this Republican candidate in a formal leadership position. 

This would be, in the case of Todd Young, his appointment to President Pro Tempore of the Senate, replacing Orrin Hatch. In the case of the house Republicans, this would involve them being appointed to the position of House Speaker, replacing Nancy Pelosi. These positions would be titular only, and would only last as long as it takes for the president and vice president to be removed.

6. Impeach and remove Donald Trump, and Mike Pence if necessary. 

With a young, moderate Republican now firmly holding a position in the presidential line of succession, Trump can be removed from office. With Pence gone as well, this Republican will then be in a position to be appointed to the position of president.

7. The Republican President nominates a Democratic or Independent Vice President. 

Unity is important in this day and age. With a Republican president replacing Trump, the chances of social upheaval and violence are lessened. By appointing a Vice President who is a Democrat or an Independent, the president will be publicly showing the importance of bipartisanship and unity.

8. Neither President or Vice President will stand for re-election in 2020. 

One important step to make this work would be the insistence that neither the newly appointed Republican president nor his non-Republican Vice President should be running for the presidency in 2020. By refusing to run, these two people would focus more upon the process of executive power wielded and effective government, rather than upon their own personal ambition to be elected to their position.

9. Donald Trump is not pardoned. 

The final part of this jigsaw must be the assurance that the new president does not pardon Trump. Although it is likely that Trump might be indicted on state charges, and thus not be able to be pardoned anyway, the action of pardoning Trump would create a huge distrust in the process of government.

Donald Trump and The 25th Amendment

Any attempt to remove Donald Trump from the presidency using the 25th Amendment is likely to fail

Impeachment is actually more likely to work, as I will shortly point out.

The 25th Amendment was written into the US constitution as a way to determine who runs the government if the president is incapacitated. This would mean that the president is so badly injured or so badly ill that he is incapable of functioning in his position. The president's cabinet, or a committee set up by congress, would then send an official letter to congress informing them of the president's incapacity. The Vice President would then be appointed into the executive role until such time as the president recovers. Once he has recovered, he would then begin working as president while the Vice President returns to his position.

Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, however, cover the possibility of a president potentially going mad or being incompetent. While these terms are not used in the amendment, it is clear that its writers assumed that a time might come when the president is unwilling to give up his role, temporary or otherwise, in the face of a 25th Amendment removal.

When this occurs you then have an impasse. If the cabinet remains committed to remove the president but the president remains committed to staying there, then the decision is referred to congress.

And in order for congress to remove the president, a two-thirds majority in both houses is needed to succeed. This is why impeachment is easier (it needs a majority in the house and two-thirds in the senate).

So if Trump's cabinet does theoretically decide that the president should be removed, the following would occur.

1. The Cabinet would write an official letter to congress stating that it is in their considered view that the president is incapable of functioning in his role. As a result, they are appointing the Vice President, Mike Pence, into the president's position. 
2.  Once this has been done, Trump would then write a letter to congress. In this letter he would say that he is fine, is the most intelligent person on the planet, and quite capable of functioning as president. Once this has been done, he would then go back to being president, and Mike Pence would return to being the VP. 
3.  After this, the cabinet would send another letter to congress, saying that Trump is not capable of functioning as president. Once this has been done, the power to make a decision is given to congress. 
4.  Congress now has to decide whether to remove the president. Two-thirds of both houses of congress are required to make this occur. As this is going on, Trump supporters are protesting outside congress, warning the Republicans in congress to not remove the president or there will be hell to pay. Some Republicans vote to remove him, but the magic two-thirds line is not reached because there are enough Trump supporters in congress to prevent the removal. 
5.  Trump remains president and fires his cabinet. Mike Pence resigns. Trump appoints Jared Kushner as VP.

The only way for Trump to be removed from office using the 25th Amendment is if congress makes that decision. And that decision is harder to make than a decision to impeach.

US Defense Spending, and Trump's increase

Donald Trump has decided to increase defense spending:

The US military is already the world's most powerful fighting force and the United States spends far more than any other country on defence. Defence spending in the most recent fiscal year was $US584 billion ($759 billion), according to the Congressional Budget Office, so Mr Trump's planned $US54 billion ($70 billion) increase would be a rise of 9.2 per cent. In a speech to conservative activists on Friday, Mr Trump promised "one of the greatest military build-ups in American history".

Yes, an increase of 9.2% is substantial as a percentage. But how big would it be compared to previous years? The following graph is based upon two FRED sources, FDEFX and GDP.

In fact the latest figures show that defense spending has decreased to 3.88% of GDP, which is the lowest recorded since 2000 Q4 (3.77% of GDP, the lowest since 1951). An increase of 9.2% would, (using a quick and simple equation) result in defense spending at 4.237% of GDP. The last time that was reached was 2014 Q3, which isn't so long ago. Of course such an equation is not very accurate when multiple quarters over many years are taken into account, but what is seen here is not a huge increase, and is still significantly lower than other periods in history.

Of course there's always the chance that Trump and Congress will make further increases in the future. But for the majority of us in the "reality based community" would still question the need for such an increase. What foreign power is threatening enough to demand such an increase in defense spending?

If defense spending remained the same proportion of GDP as it is now (3.9% to 4.1% of GDP), America would be safe enough. The risk of being attacked by a substantial foreign power is probably the lowest in history, and the risk that America's allies face is the lowest in history. The threat posed by IS and other Islamic terrorist organisations needs to be kept in perspective, namely that they pose not even one tenth of the threat posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

Moreover the increase in defense spending may presage a future military campaign. But against who? Is increasing spending on defense simply the fulfillment of an election promise or is there something more substantial in the president's mind?

How Mexico can pay for the wall

Mexico holds US Treasury bonds as part of its international reserve. In October last year, they had $45.9 Billion. Link here.

Assuming the total co-operation of the Republican dominated US Congress, these bonds could be permanently confiscated in order to fund the wall.

Such an act would probably be without precedent.

Iran, for example, was unable to access their US bond holdings until the recent treaty allowed them to. In this case, legislation didn't permanently seize the funds - just kept the owners from accessing it while the dispute between the two nations continued.

Of course, seizing the international reserves of a country in order to make them pay for something is hardly in the best interests of anyone. Yet here we are and Donald Trump is about to be sworn in as president.

We can look forward to some very interesting times ahead. But not "good" interesting.