tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post113418960433555271..comments2024-03-22T19:12:22.089+11:00Comments on One Salient Oversight: Peakniks must embrace conventional economicsNeil Cameron (One Salient Oversight)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03143948543305522865noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-60798582401365223452010-03-31T03:56:44.948+11:002010-03-31T03:56:44.948+11:00I don’t know If I said it already but …I’m so glad...I don’t know If I said it already but …I’m so glad I found this site <a href="http://www.xlpharmacy.com/" rel="nofollow"><b>buy viagra</b></a>…Keep up the good work I read a lot of blogs on a daily basis and for the most part, people lack substance but, I just wanted to make a quick comment to say great blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-39515744040309549472010-02-27T02:54:20.525+11:002010-02-27T02:54:20.525+11:00Economics aims to explain how economies work and h...Economics aims to explain how economies work and how economic agents interact. Economic analysis is applied throughout society, in business, finance and government, but also in crime, education, the family, health, law, politics, religion, social institutions, war, and science. The expanding domain of economics in the social sciences has been described as economic imperialism<br />greetings<br /><br /><a href="http://www.learnsexualhealth.com/" rel="nofollow">Cialis online</a>starhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14020059803153476970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134637480278592952005-12-15T20:04:00.000+11:002005-12-15T20:04:00.000+11:00I put some initial thoughts together on the 'doome...I put some initial thoughts together on the 'doomers' 'misplacing the apocalypse' <A HREF="http://elizaphanian.blogspot.com/2005/12/misplacing-apocalypse.html" REL="nofollow">here</A>. I'd be interested to know your views.Sam Charles Nortonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04088870675715850624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134606686677092272005-12-15T11:31:00.000+11:002005-12-15T11:31:00.000+11:00I am very interested in solar chimneys. The techno...I am very interested in solar chimneys. The technology appeals to me as it is conceptually simple and (therefore) low maintenance.<BR/><BR/>They are currently building one in Oz which is expected to generate electricity for 200,000 homes. Only 30 of these would be required to supply electricity for the whole country!Craig Schwarzehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156017639962303656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134524078287957182005-12-14T12:34:00.000+11:002005-12-14T12:34:00.000+11:00Consider too the anemic response from the develope...<I>Consider too the anemic response from the developed world for disaster relief in Kashmir. </I><BR/><BR/>I think there were two factors involved. <BR/><BR/>1. Initial reports did not convey the scale of the disaster<BR/><BR/>2. There is a lot of "donor fatigue" after generous contributions to the Tsunami earlier in the year<BR/><BR/>I doubt that it is linked to higher fuel prices...Craig Schwarzehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156017639962303656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134384576440232632005-12-12T21:49:00.000+11:002005-12-12T21:49:00.000+11:00By the way, I got this reply from Jim Kunstler:---...By the way, I got this reply from Jim Kunstler:<BR/>------------------------<BR/><BR/><I>they do not understand the Peak Oil theory and their own economic theories and prognostications do not take into account the geological limit to oil extraction that is proved by Hubbert's Peak.</I><BR/><BR/>That's a pretty big blind spot. Unforgivably stupid, actually.<BR/> <BR/><I>I also believe that Peak Oil will lead to massive <BR/>economic problems. I, however, choose to use the more refined words that economists use.</I><BR/> <BR/>My tactic, too, despite misinterpretation of my writings.<BR/> <BR/>Hyperinflation cannot continue very long without extreme political blowback.<BR/> <BR/><I>Banks can only create as much money as the economy itself chooses to create.</I><BR/> <BR/>Being allergic to conspiracy theories, I am sympathetic to your view that this money idea is often overstated -- but I wonder if you fail to appreciate the recklessness of current lending standards and the decay of norms.<BR/><BR/>I may be incorrect about this, but it seems to me that Paul Volker's only real weapon against inflation was extraordinarily high interest rates (up to 20%), which had weird repercussions of their own. I would argue that the <BR/>collapse of oil prices really iced the inflation.<BR/><BR/>personally, I think the fact that so much of the remaining crude is located in the ME will somewhat aggravate the allocation-by-demand calculus you describe. In short, all bets are off where geopolitics are concerned.<BR/><BR/>I imagine there will be some 'steady state' elements in the decades ahead, but this outlook tends to discount sheer socio-political turbulence.<BR/> <BR/><I>Wasteful energy consumption that we see happening today in the form of Four Wheeled Drives (SUVs), badly insulated houses that rely upon fossil fuels for heating and/or cooling, as well as other things, will be curtailed.</I><BR/><BR/>The tends to discount the powerful psychology of previous investment, which will lead to a foolish defense of suburbia. Even absent that, we would be <BR/>horribly burdened by the iabilities of existing suburbia and all its furnishings and accessories.<BR/> <BR/>I think you generally underestimate the ramifying, mutually-reinforcing effect of instability on gigantic complex systems.<BR/> <BR/>Jim Kunstler<BR/>"It's All Good"Neil Cameron (One Salient Oversight)https://www.blogger.com/profile/03143948543305522865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134384326219072942005-12-12T21:45:00.000+11:002005-12-12T21:45:00.000+11:00Ian,re: you liguid fuel substitution.I understand ...Ian,<BR/><BR/>re: you liguid fuel substitution.<BR/><BR/>I understand that these forms of fuel require greater inputs of energy than conventional oil supplies.<BR/><BR/>However, I would still argue that the fact that they are currently economically viable (especially in Athabasca with Syncrude) means that their EROEI is acceptable. <BR/><BR/>It'll take time to ramp up production, but Athabasca and Orinoco will put a bit of a plateau on the other side of the Peak once enough infrastucture is set up.Neil Cameron (One Salient Oversight)https://www.blogger.com/profile/03143948543305522865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134384108781798722005-12-12T21:41:00.000+11:002005-12-12T21:41:00.000+11:00Waves4future,Thanks for your comment. I have to ad...Waves4future,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your comment. I have to admit that my understanding of economics is pretty much self taught, so I would not yet class myself formally as an "Economist".<BR/><BR/>As you can tell, my writing style does not lend itself to "Economics-speak" and I still have a hard time understanding all those curves and equations. However, once I get my head around them I usually say "I already worked that out!"<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://one-salient-oversight.blogspot.com/2005/07/zero-unemployment-economic-system.html" REL="nofollow">I have solved unemployment, however.</A>Neil Cameron (One Salient Oversight)https://www.blogger.com/profile/03143948543305522865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134383864617381872005-12-12T21:37:00.000+11:002005-12-12T21:37:00.000+11:00Studebaker,Again the wording of my article may not...Studebaker,<BR/><BR/>Again the wording of my article may not have been clear enough so I apologise if that was the case.<BR/><BR/>Being a "Peaknik" myself means that I do accept that the coming peak will do a great deal of damage to the world economy. The use of the Amish illustration was therefore proper because it argued that unemployment leels can actually be low during the economic realignment.<BR/><BR/><I>I don't have a great deal of confidence in Markets because markets reflect social and cultural preferences, which can be quite inelastic (viz. the Vikings in Greenland and Easter Island) and are also often rigged to favour certain classes and castes in order so they may act, behave, and consume in a higly wasteful manner.</I><BR/><BR/>I would totally agree with this statement. The market is badly flawed, which is why I favour more of a "third way" between the market and more socialist principles.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your comment.Neil Cameron (One Salient Oversight)https://www.blogger.com/profile/03143948543305522865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134383508873051682005-12-12T21:31:00.000+11:002005-12-12T21:31:00.000+11:00Elizaphanian,I would agree with everything you've ...Elizaphanian,<BR/><BR/>I would agree with everything you've said. I think "Doomers" are simply a matter of [personality type] + [stressor]. The stressor in this case is Peak Oil, but it could quite easily be a religious one if the individual was in a different situation.Neil Cameron (One Salient Oversight)https://www.blogger.com/profile/03143948543305522865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134383238851574382005-12-12T21:27:00.000+11:002005-12-12T21:27:00.000+11:00Tom,As energy use diminishes and GDP diminishes, I...Tom,<BR/><BR/><I>As energy use diminishes and GDP diminishes, I do not understand in what way the economy is growing.</I><BR/><BR/>I may have worded it badly. In any event I was talking about nations that have both growing populations and growing economies, but with GDP increasing at a slower rate than population. This would lead to "GDP growth", but a decline in GDP per capita.Neil Cameron (One Salient Oversight)https://www.blogger.com/profile/03143948543305522865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134382505585684692005-12-12T21:15:00.000+11:002005-12-12T21:15:00.000+11:00"I would assert that the "structural decline" will..."I would assert that the "structural <BR/>decline" will be experienced as very low year on year GDP figures, and a decline in GDP per <BR/>capita figures in nations that, on paper, are still growing economically."<BR/><BR/><BR/>As energy use diminishes and GDP diminishes, I do not understand in what way the economy is growing. Also, I wonder what you think of my study "Cash Flow in a Mark II Economy" http://tinyurl.com/9l66w <BR/>which links EROEI and money according to the E/GDP ratio tabulated by DOE for every year and every nation. I enjoyed your article. Thank you.<BR/><BR/>Tom Wayburn, Houston, Texas, http://web.wt.net/~twayburn/<BR/>twayburn@wt.netTom Wayburnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13722539859652296773noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134381279836083302005-12-12T20:54:00.000+11:002005-12-12T20:54:00.000+11:00Excellent article. Good to read some economically ...Excellent article. Good to read some economically informed analysis of Peak Oil and the transition (I call it <A HREF="http://elizaphanian.blogspot.com/2005/10/great-dislocation.html" REL="nofollow">'the great dislocation'</A>) - I agree that there is life, and civilised life, on the other side.<BR/><BR/>But given your other interests, have you thought/written about the way in which the apocalyptic imagination is deployed by people like Jay Hanson? It just seems to me (and I'm pondering writing an essay giving chapter and verse) that what you have with the 'doomers' is a misplaced theological framework. The prophets used apocalyptic language as a means of criticising the political status quo (amongst other things - see Tom Wright) not as a direct expectation of the world coming to an immediate end. What we have with the doomers is, at root, a hatred of the status quo, and a longing for a violent overthrow of it - they are using the apocalyptic language inappropriately. You might be interested to see <A HREF="http://elizaphanian.blogspot.com/2005/12/loves-only-engine-of-survival.html" REL="nofollow">this </A> (which had Peak Oil hovering in the background)Sam Charles Nortonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04088870675715850624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134361922028966392005-12-12T15:32:00.000+11:002005-12-12T15:32:00.000+11:00I thought we'd had this conversation to death Crai...<I>I thought we'd had this conversation to death Craig?</I><BR/><BR/>Probably Dave! I was referring to the "classic" peak oil graph - the one where demand keeps rising in a uniform line after the peak...Craig Schwarzehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156017639962303656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134361840744922102005-12-12T15:30:00.000+11:002005-12-12T15:30:00.000+11:00unemployment didn't appear to be a problem during ...<I>unemployment didn't appear to be a problem during the Black Death,</I><BR/>Indeed, according to Schama the opposite occurred - demand for labour meant living standards for the remaining peasants actually increased.Craig Schwarzehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156017639962303656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1134216915318668192005-12-10T23:15:00.000+11:002005-12-10T23:15:00.000+11:00Hi Neil, I think that was well argued. As I've sai...Hi Neil, I think that was well argued. As I've said previously, I don't think basic economics has been accounted for in some of the peak oil scenarios.<BR/><BR/>The main problem with the classic peaknik graph is that it treats demand as totally inelastic. But even the recent brush with high oil prices showed strong demand elasticity. It seems around $1.30/litre people started to make significant lifestyle changes, like taking public transport and doing less leisure driving. I even know someone who sold their V8!<BR/><BR/>To be honest, I am quite looking forward to seeing what happens when petrol hits $1.50 or $2 / litre. The market will produce some intriguing solutions. <BR/><BR/>Still, I rather suspect petrol at that price is some time away.Craig Schwarzehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156017639962303656noreply@blogger.com