tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post112648546732150096..comments2024-03-22T19:12:22.089+11:00Comments on One Salient Oversight: Why is it so expensive to fill up your car?Neil Cameron (One Salient Oversight)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03143948543305522865noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1129370033949458652005-10-15T19:53:00.000+10:002005-10-15T19:53:00.000+10:00'The ministry revealed that, according to Internat...'The ministry revealed that, according to International Monetary Fund data, Japan's reserves stood at $834.0 billion as of the end of June, while the combined reserves held by China and Hong Kong came to $837.9 billion.'<BR/> + 'SAN FRANCISCO -- China's government-controlled CNOOC Ltd. withdrew its $18.4 billion bid for Unocal Corp. on Tuesday, ending a politically charged takeover battle that highlighted the United States' growing apprehension about the economic rise of the world's most populous country.' = ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1128950815773485242005-10-10T23:26:00.000+10:002005-10-10T23:26:00.000+10:00Hi all,I'm a "Centralist" ... halfway between a Pe...Hi all,<BR/>I'm a "Centralist" ... halfway between a Peaknik and a Doomer. I'm Neil's mate, and introduced Neil to peak oil.<BR/><BR/>I spend about an hour or 2 or 3 a day trying to raise awareness of peak oil, and trying to understand the thing.<BR/><BR/>I think Neil is far, far too optimistic and dismissive of the risks. He's a great mate, and has spent many hours on the phone to me about this subject — thanks Neil.<BR/><BR/>But I am honestly convinced that market economics are BUILT on oil, and as such can hardly respond to it in the normal fashion as with other commodities. Oil feeds and transports us, it provides our plastics and chemicals and medicines... it really is the basis for the modern world. There is no alternative.<BR/><BR/><BR/>I'd like to quote a few important sources that discuss just HOW nasty this could get... credible people with careers on the line... such as politicians!<BR/><BR/>1/ Conservative Republican Senator, Roscoe Bartlett. <BR/>He had a previous career in science and would not be quoting one of the foremost peaknik Doomers everywhere he went if there was a simple answer like "Hybrid cars"!<BR/>This is what Roscoe has quoted in the US Senate.<BR/><BR/> “Dear readers,<BR/>Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."<BR/>http://www.rff.org/rff/Events/Energy2050/Renewables.cfm<BR/><BR/>http://www.energybulletin.net/4733.html<BR/><BR/><BR/>2/ The Hirsch report.<BR/><BR/>Robert Hirsch headed up a leading oil depletion report for the USA DOE. This is one of the most significant scientific reports ever submitted to the DOE. I emailed Robert and asked him what he thought the bottom line was. This is his answer. <BR/><BR/>"No one knows with certainty when the world production of conventional oil will peak, but a number of experts think it will happen in the next 5-15 years. Our work illustrates that the oil peaking problem can be mitigated with available technologies, but the time required for implementation is measured on a 15-20 year time line, at best. <BR/><BR/>The character of the oil peaking problem is like none other; without timely mitigation, the impacts will be dire, worldwide, and long-lasting. Prudent risk management dictates serious attention and massive action soon, which is difficult for most people and many decision-makers, who tend to wait until a problem is obvious before taking action. <BR/><BR/>Use this as you see fit. <BR/><BR/>Bob" <BR/><BR/>For more discussion about the Hirsch report please see the Sydney Morning Herald report here:-<BR/>http://webdiary.smh.com.au/archives/margo_kingston/001367.html<BR/><BR/>Download the 96 page Hirsch report Word file (534 KB) on my home page — www.eclipsenow.org<BR/><BR/>3/ Andrew McNamara the Labor Member for Hervey bay, Queensland. <BR/><BR/>He speaks to David Room of the Postcarbon Institute about the seriousness of peak oil for the modern economy. In this internet interview, he basically gives away one of the details of his “Oil Vulnerability Taskforce” (due to the Queensland Labor government mid October 2005). He states that there is no alternative technology to keep our airlines flying. With all the commercial airlines bankrupted I’m afraid, THAT’S IT! International tourism, the world’s largest employer, takes a catastrophic hit and we are thrown into the Greater Depression… one with no energy surplus to pull us back out again. <BR/><BR/>http://media.globalpublicmedia.com/RM/2005/08/McNamara.20050824.mp3<BR/><BR/>About 45 minutes audio. <BR/><BR/>4/ Australia’s celebrity scientist "Dr Karl" says peak oil is here <BR/><BR/>http://sydneypeakoil.com/downloads/abc_peak_oil.mp3<BR/><BR/>Dr Karl is an incurable optimist regarding science and technology for the future… however, this 30 minute JJJ show is worth listening to. <BR/><BR/>Steve Cannane interviews James Howard Kunstler, author of "The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of the Oil Age, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century". <BR/><BR/>Also present were Sonia Shah, Dr Karl, and Andrew McNamara — a Queensland Labor party member concerned about peak oil. <BR/><BR/>5/ Deputy Prime Minister of Australia. <BR/><BR/>Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson believes high fuel prices reflect the inevitable decline in the world's oil and gas reserves. <BR/>He expressed deep concern about the long-term future of oil and says fuel prices will have to be high enough to encourage more exploration. <BR/><BR/>Mr Anderson says the world could reach peak production of oil and gas far sooner than predicted because of the rapid increase in energy demands in China. <BR/><BR/>"We are using stored energy left over from ages gone by at an alarming rate and it isn't re-making," he said. <BR/><BR/>"While people talk about new technologies and they say as soon as oil reaches a certain price everybody will switch over to hydrogen and what have you. <BR/><BR/>"The reality is that it may not be as simple as that and you have to wonder whether over the next decade we won't start to get towards peak production and that could be a very interesting time and a very challenging time." <BR/><BR/>http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200505/s1373262.html<BR/><BR/><BR/>6/ David Suzuki <BR/><BR/>"The impact of [peak oil] is going to create enormous suffering, no doubt about it." <BR/><BR/>So there you have it. Others are sufficiently freaked out by the possibility that the peak will hit soon, and hard, and wreck our economies and collapse our crop yields...<BR/>this is not replacing a faulty iPod nano!<BR/><BR/>This is about retrofitting our entire civilization and changing almost every single human endeavour, from how we grow our food, what we do with our sewage, what we do with waste collection, how we adjust to life without airlines, how we downscale the global interdependency of the modern marketplace and become more self sufficient at home.<BR/><BR/>The main one for me is food. Google "Eating Fossil Fuels" and you'll see what I mean. And even if we do grow it, how does it get to a local corner store?<BR/><BR/>There is just far too much simplistic faith in market forces. The fact that the Hirsch report has already stated that market forces are inadequate for meeting the peak oil crisis should be enough — but you cannot argue with "faith". Besides, Gever, et al., 1991 already graphed the difference in outcomes if peak oil was just left to market forces, or had a massive government intervention.<BR/><BR/>http://www.dieoff.org/page143.htm<BR/><BR/>hint: Potential civilization crash if governments shirk their responsibility and leave peak oil up to market forces... as they are currently doing.<BR/><BR/>Peak oil is such a massive challenge that we need an emergency war time economy right now, but we are addicted to business as usual. Our economics degrees and theories tell us everything will be fine.<BR/><BR/>Credible, scientific people are telling us otherwise... but everyone is in the consensus trance. This is not a mere recession as we switch to Hybrids. This is not a Depression. This will go down in history as the "Greater Depression" — maybe lasting 30 or 40 years!<BR/><BR/>Just remember, in any contest between economic theory such as "the invisible hand" and the laws of thermodynamics, thermodynamics will win. <BR/><BR/>Reality rules OK?<BR/><BR/>Dave Lankshear<BR/>www.eclipsenow.orgAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1126759806182788492005-09-15T14:50:00.000+10:002005-09-15T14:50:00.000+10:00You are very probably right there. I own a fast fo...You are very probably right there. I own a fast food shop (amongst other things), and we have certainly been affected by the cost of petrol. It really eats into people's disposable income...Craig Schwarzehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156017639962303656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1126756222211947552005-09-15T13:50:00.000+10:002005-09-15T13:50:00.000+10:00Craig,I can't fault anything you've said here. I a...Craig,<BR/><BR/>I can't fault anything you've said here. I agree - rising oil prices will force the world to conserve and that will be a good thing.<BR/><BR/>Some "Peakniks" have actually started their own "lifeboats" and have started permaculture farms out in Western NSW. They honestly think its TEOTWAWKI.<BR/><BR/>I don't - but I do think that the world is headed for a rather deep recession as a result.Neil Cameron (One Salient Oversight)https://www.blogger.com/profile/03143948543305522865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1126755126318277562005-09-15T13:32:00.000+10:002005-09-15T13:32:00.000+10:00Heya OSO,So have you started your permaculture far...Heya OSO,<BR/><BR/>So have you started your permaculture farm in central NSW yet? ;-)<BR/><BR/>One initial point, what Daniel said was that they had figured out how to do it <I>economically</I> - thats the key difference.<BR/><BR/>I understand the EROEI argument, but the counter-argument is provided by increasing efficiencies of energy conversion. <BR/><BR/>For a start, there are renewable sources of electrical energy. These become more economically viable as the price of oil rises. <BR/><BR/>Also, some hybrid cars dont need an external source of electricity at all - they generate electrical energy through braking. They still need oil of course - but much less.<BR/><BR/>I think the increase in oil price is generally a good thing, as it will speed the production of alternative energy sources. <BR/><BR/>Things will be a bit uncomfortable for a while, but they will pan out in the long run. <BR/><BR/>I predict a hybrid car will be available in Oz for under $25,000 within 2 years. Hold me to that... ;-)Craig Schwarzehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156017639962303656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1126753228262651482005-09-15T13:00:00.000+10:002005-09-15T13:00:00.000+10:00Craig,You're right in assuming that there is a "Lu...Craig,<BR/><BR/>You're right in assuming that there is a "Lunatic fringe" to Peak Oil advocates. I've managed to avoid any apocalyptic doomsaying - mainly because of my understanding of market economics.<BR/><BR/>And yes you are right that a new price point equilibrium will be found - the problem is that cheap energy is one of the foundations of modern life. Agriculture needs oil to produce fertilizers and pesticides - it's not just for cars.<BR/><BR/>Many peakniks dismiss hybrid cars - mainly because of the EROEI.<BR/><BR/>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EROEI<BR/><BR/>Daniel,<BR/><BR/>The technology to extract oil from Tar sands and Oil shale have been around for over a decade. The technology isn't the problem - the price is. It's only now that oil prices are so high that these alternative sources of oil are viable.<BR/><BR/>The biggest problem, however, is the massive infrastructure required to extract enough oil to make an impact. It's going to take at least a decade of solid investment and massive building to create an effective oil industry out of this. And there is environmental concerns too. If the Tar sands in Alberta are to be accessed, it may require a large proportion of the state to become an oil swamp - the environmentalists won't like that!Neil Cameron (One Salient Oversight)https://www.blogger.com/profile/03143948543305522865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1126751962197107832005-09-15T12:39:00.000+10:002005-09-15T12:39:00.000+10:00You might like to know that Shell may have cracked...You might like to know that Shell may have cracked the oil shale problem and have it produce economically. It might be a bit before it's in widespread comercial production, but I think they figured it out.RandomDanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03787185732614416948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14237465.post-1126749639600894832005-09-15T12:00:00.000+10:002005-09-15T12:00:00.000+10:00I've done a bit of reading on peak oil and I'm not...I've done a bit of reading on peak oil and I'm not convinced. <BR/><BR/>I mean, I agree that oil production is going to decline, but I dont accept all this apocalyptic rubbish that they are espousing. Maybe thats just the lunatic fringe of the movement.<BR/><BR/>Reduced supply will lead to increased prices. People will modify their lifestyles accordingly and a new price point equilibrium will be found. <BR/><BR/>In the mean time alternative energy sources will continue to be developed. Hybrid cars are already commercially available. Increased demand will increase supply, and competition will push prices down. <BR/><BR/>Humanity are almost infinitely ingenious...Craig Schwarzehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156017639962303656noreply@blogger.com